Friday, June 26, 2020

Dystopia beckons

IT is here. More than four months of almost daily acrimony and bungling on the part of officialdom later, Pakistan has become one of the global hotspots for the novel coronavirus. It was a matter of if rather than when, but we — and the two-fifths of humanity that reside in the Indian subcontinent — are now in the thick of it.

Speculating about the ultimate damage that this deadly pathogen will do is an exercise in futility. It has already ravaged individual countries like Brazil and the world system more generally, the IMF’s most recent estimate suggesting that global economic output will decline by $12 trillion. Indeed, the identifiable fallouts of the pandemic are simply the tip of the iceberg. The interrelated crises that have been exposed by the pandemic will continue to unfold in the years ahead, and thinking through them critically is imperative if there is any chance of halting an increasingly rapid slide into dystopia.
Take, for instance, what Covid-19 has illuminated about the actual workings of the health sector. The perilous conditions in which doctors, nurses and other essential workers in the public sector are performing their duties and the exhaustion of public health facilities more generally is common knowledge. But less discussed is the shameless profiteering off those who are affected by the disease, and the tens of millions of people in this country who suffer ailments other than the coronavirus.
The rates of private hospital beds and other services have increased exponentially. Basic medicines are being sold on the black market at exorbitant prices. Even hailing an ambulance for emergencies incurs scandalous costs. This is aside from the sale of ‘magic’ treatments like the blood plasma of recovered Covid-19 patients that harken to established and despicable practices like the selling of kidneys.
The pandemic’s identifiable fallout is just the tip of the iceberg.
In a nutshell, an increasingly large number of working people in Pakistan are already at the mercy of a privatised healthcare system, sharks lurking at every corner to pillage the toiling classes who are at best uninformed and at worst prone to be taken for a ride because of the worldview that our paranoid state apparatus has inculcated over the decades.
The situation in the education sector is similar. The once ubiquitous idea that the state must provide affordable education to all of its citizens, up to the level of the public university, is now for all intents and purposes a pipe dream. Private schools, colleges and universities delivering what at best can be called mediocre education are to be found in every street of every small town and city of Pakistan. If you pay, you get certified. Those seeking to protect the right to public education — or even internet access, as the arrests in Quetta on Wednesday demonstrated — get vilified.
The pandemic presages a world in which those who cannot afford to purchase health, education, water or other basic needs will be confined to physical ghettoes, not unlike some of our katchi abadis, walled in from ‘civilised’ and ‘sanitised’ society. Or perhaps it is better to imagine it the other way around; elite ghettos in the form of gated housing communities already dot the Pakistani cityscape, including in ‘international port cities’ like Gwadar. Not generally advertised is that many such housing schemes come into existence through brutal dispossession of politically voiceless working people. Aren’t we already reproducing the model of heavily fortified Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory?
For those who believe this is the stuff of science fiction, think again. All around the world, the pandemic has provided a fillip to already authoritarian statecraft, the power of Big Tech, class, racial/ethnic and gender privilege. We’re still getting our head around the idea of second or third waves of the virus. Cutting edge and grounded science confirms that destructive practices of industrial agriculture are likely to throw up more deadly pathogens. And this is not even to speak of the planetary climate crisis.
Suitably sanitised, the Pakistani mainstream is well practised in calling out excesses in Palestine, Kashmir, Burma, and other selected places far away from our own melting pot of injustice and tyranny. Meanwhile, the wherewithal to understand epidemiological matters, or climate science more generally, is conspicuous by its absence, the utterings of Climate Change Minister Zartaj Gul Wazir an indication of how dire the situation is.
Yet the underlying crises are about much more than individuals. Critical inquiry and independence is a must if we are to transcend the establishment-centric political system and halt the slide into dystopia. But repression makes the cost of independence high. It all feels like a car crash in slow motion. Which means that there is little time to waste for those still on the fence. It will all come to a head sooner than you think.
The writer teaches at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

Premature optimism

If reviewed without context, these figures do look promising. However, the same period in which coronavirus cases supposedly declined also witnessed a sharp reduction in tests. Where authorities had conducted north of 31,000 in a single day around mid-June, in the past few days the numbers have fallen to below 25,000. In fact, according to one NCOC press release on June 25, the total number of tests was below 22,000.
While officials are eager to pat themselves on the back and are marvelling at what they claim is the success of ‘smart lockdowns’ or achievement of ‘herd immunity’, the celebrations are premature if not entirely unjustified.
The true picture of Pakistan’s Covid-19 infections can be understood through simple calculations. One likely factor behind the fewer positive cases is that fewer people are being tested. The focus of the authorities should not be on the number of people testing positive, but rather on the number of tests being done and the percentage of total tests versus total positive cases in a single day. This percentage mid-June was between 18pc and 22pc, which meant that 18 to 22 out of every 100 people tested were Covid-19 positive. In the last five days, that percentage has been recorded at between 16pc to 20pc — a 2pc reduction which can hardly be claimed as a victory when testing was reduced by a third.
As we know, and much like the global trend for Covid-19 cases, community transmission is rampant. Testing must be ramped up; in the case where fewer suspected Covid-19 patients are seeking tests at hospitals, it must be done in communities to assess how widespread the infection is. A reduction in testing at this stage, when the government and healthcare experts fear a peak around mid-August, is unacceptable. Authorities must make good on their commitment to increase testing to 100,000 daily and sustain this over a prolonged period. Only then can victories and losses be documented.

Creeping religiosity

IT is not by accident that the dark forces of bigotry and obscurantism have become stronger than ever in Pakistan. The phenomenon is all too visibly rooted in the government’s acts of omission and commission.
The regularisation of madressahs and the reform of their curricula were given top priority in the National Action Plan of 2014. While that plan remains unimplemented due to the obduracy of the religious lobby, some school textbooks will not be published unless they are approved and cleared by a religious body. Where is the sanction for this extraordinary decision?
It sounds strange that even after 40 years of effort by Ziaul Haq and his successors to impose their version of Islam on the people, a law has to be enacted and executive orders issued to persuade young people to study the Quran Sharif. All Muslims try to study the Holy Book as best as their resources permit. If there are any hearts in which the fear of God should be planted, many of them are likely to be found among the rulers of Pakistan, such as ministers and law-enforcement personnel.
Islam is a totally voluntary religion. Where does the Punjab government get the idea about punishing students who fail to study the Quran? A Punjab act of 2018, providing for compulsory study of the Quran by students of all educational institutions in the province, is already in force. What was the need for the Punjab governor to issue a notification this month to the effect that those failing to study the Holy Book would not be awarded degrees? The ulema may well examine the question of whether the Punjab notification is in accord with the fundamental Islamic principle of la ikraha fid deen (there is no compulsion in religion)
The most unfortunate reality is that any demand or action can be put beyond discussion in Pakistan by wrapping it in a religious standard.
Prof Arfana Mallah, one of the country’s most widely esteemed teachers and a champion of humanitarian causes, was harassed by religious zealots and threatened with murder to the extent that she was driven to offering regrets for an offence she had not committed. Can anything more offensive and humiliating to a sensitive person be imagined?
She was accused of pointing out flaws in a man-made law and not a divine revelation. Since when has any criticism of a provision in the Penal Code become an offence? The Federal Shariat Court, that made the death penalty mandatory for an offence under Section 295-C, had itself observed in its order that this section was not in accord with the Islamic principle of al-aamal-o-bin niyat (actions are judged by intent). The advocate who had petitioned the Shariat Court to declare the death penalty mandatory under Section 295-C, published a book, Qanun Touhin-i-Risalat, in which he stated: “In my opinion it is absolutely necessary to bring this Section 295-C in accord with the Quran and Sunnah by further amending it. Otherwise, if this section is retained in its present form, ‘vagueness’ and legal complications could cause problems.” The government cannot be unaware of all this and its silence over mob frenzy confirms its complicity. Or should we prosecute the late advocate Ismail Qureshi?
Many indications of the state’s surrender to the conservative religious lobby are available. For years, the government has not been able to satisfy the Financial Action Task Force about the measures it should take to prevent funding for terrorist organisations because of its soft corner for ‘good terrorists’.
Recently, three books, The First Muslim, After the Prophet [PBUH], and A Short History of Islam, were banned for containing material allegedly derogatory to the sahaba. But who determined this charge was correct and by what procedure?
The latest federal budget has reduced the size of funding for the Higher Education Commission, and the link between the neglect of universities and a boost to the madressah network has been known since the Zia days.
Recently, the government set up a peculiar commission on minorities whose composition and mandate were subject to the religious lobby’s approval and this body has been parked within the Ministry of Religious Affairs, whose main task is to keep religio-political leaders in line with government policies.
The government yielded to the religious lobby’s pressure in the matter of taraveeh prayers during Ramazan and they are claiming distinction in flouting restrictions on congregations and SOPs during the pandemic. If the poll that says 55 per cent of the people don’t take Covid-19 seriously is correct, a major contribution to this situation has been made by pseudo religious agitators.
The latest development in the drive to suppress rational voices that have long been targeted by exploiters of religion for narrow sociopolitical ends is curtailment of academic space for teachers who prefer rationalism to naked bigotry. There have been reports of the adverse revisions of contracts of a few teachers known for independent thinking. The motive may not be to punish them for their views but the result will be that the people in general will be deprived of the fruits of their intellect. Hardly anyone can believe that the purge of the independent-minded intellectuals is being orchestrated without a master conductor.
This could be obviously a warning to all academics of the new terms of survival. There is no doubt that a campaign to suppress alternative voices is now in full swing. It could lead to the establishment of a theocracy that cannot give the people anything except misery, as Dr Fazlur Rahman declared many years ago. His prediction that such a regime would have a short life is no consolation because much that is precious in Pakistan will have been lost. Does anyone have a right to cause all this misery to the people?

Scientific advancement

IT is difficult to say if Fawad Chaudhry was always fond of these games in which he cast himself as a deceptively fatalistic politician willing to bluntly discuss everything. Memory says it is more an acquired skill from the days he found himself in the Musharraf camp, probably because the liberal general offered his family the best hope to protect their long cultivated interests in the tough Jhelum terrain against the local custodians of the mighty Sharif dynasty. Perhaps the commentators are right and it is ‘we’ the press who have lent him his final cutting edge. His competitive, provocative nature could well have been honed during his stint as a television host some time ago.
Far from falling for any pseudo neutrality that a television host may be flaunting, the experience has left him more open to discussing his vision and ambitions. His opposition to parties, especially the PPP, for which he had inherited a soft spot due to old associations, has been more direct, lest someone doubted his commitment to the kaptaan who he finally managed to get a hold of.
There is a science to it. Quite in the fashion of how they do politics today in other countries, Fawad Chaudhry is apparently always very candid about discussing the affairs of his party, the PTI, which is precious since it has done what others had struggled to do: giving his family a clear shot at dominating politics in Jhelum after so long.
As per the formula, the gentleman doesn’t pick just any opponent. His selections are always brilliant as they give him room to agitate with calculated risk.
It appears that Fawad Chaudhry also chooses his targets within his party with utmost care.
He is not naive to take on just any maulana or allama in his pursuit of the supremacy of science. He is careful to have as his rival a mufti sahib who enjoys a certain reputation because of the annual public exposé of his vision and who is not known to double as a violent jihadi against those who he cannot convince with words.
It appears that Chaudhry also chooses his targets within the party with utmost care. It all depends on just how intense he wants his argument to be at a particular time. If he is discussing big guns such as Jahangir Tareen, Shah Mahmood Qureshi and the great Asad Umar in the same vein as having adversely affected the PTI, he must have a solid reason for doing so.
But remember one important thing: even in the supposedly heated moment when this politician, with his head full of ideas, sat across from the incomparable Sohail Warraich giving an explosive interview the other day, he must have been conscious about taking the necessary precautions.
One, he was profuse to a fault in his praise for his leader Imran Khan just as he was categorical in his rejection of the PML-N and PPP. Two, he was aware enough to casually refer to his good relations with the fauj. Three, he was clear that the infighting among the political class in the PTI benefited the civil bureaucracy.
Politics is a lot about timing, as is also said about journalism. There couldn’t have been a more perfectly timed collaboration than this one. Sohail Warraich has recently tested negative for Covid-19 after contracting the virus a few weeks ago. Having returned from the edge, and for once refusing to succumb to the seductive charms of the inferior art of symbols where one can find a spoon talking to a fork in his columns, he was willing to tread on frank territory that he had declared out of bounds for his graying head. Who knows he might have felt like Bruce Willis of Diehard fame as he allowed old friend Fawad to have his say, quipping here and there with a straight face.
Post interview, Chaudhry tried to do a Warraich on the cabinet. Apparently accosted by his colleagues, he — innocently — explained his remarks about the conflicts within the PTI and the party’s failures as having been given as an analyst and not as a ruling party MNA, or far worse, in his avatar as minister. However, perhaps the biggest reason for this was provided by his own disclosure about how the prime minister has set a deadline for his cabinet colleagues to deliver. Six months, or even less ie five and a half months.
For a leader trained to divide everything into two — two spells, two innings, the second life after rebirth — approaching the halfway mark of his prime ministerial term without much to show for on the scoreboard would be a source of some tension. The smarter souls around him, such as Fawad Chaudhry, and their journalist well-wishers, who must forever remind them of how they should collect capital now for future electoral battles, are very conscious of the arrival of this crucial hour. They must try and assert their positions, old and new, and see what they can end up with.
Again, you cannot possibly have a Pakistani most committed to scientific advancement to get into it without first calculating. The new plunge for power by the political class characterised by the ostensibly risky course taken by Fawad Chaudhry is cushioned in circumstances created by the internal PTI strife coupled with the withdrawal of support from the government by Akhtar Mengal and his party. The Mengal exit severely curtails Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ability to admonish an important party politician who is said to enjoy the confidence of ‘powerful quarters’.
This opportunity is not peculiar to one politician or lawmaker in the ruling party. There is a mutually beneficial clamour of grievances for an under-pressure prime minister to address. Khwaja Sheraz Mahmood and Riaz Mahmood Mazari are ruling party MNAs from southern Punjab, who may have joined the group of PTI complainants purely out of their reservations regarding Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. In the quest for a midway reassignment of duties during the prime minister’s first term in power, they do complement in a huge way the free scientific advancement of a man who thinks his potential has been underutilised.
The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.

Air crash report

Some of them, it is hoped, will be answered in the final report as this is an ongoing investigation, and little to no analysis can be expected at this point. Other questions, pertaining to more fundamental aspects of commercial aviation in Pakistan, are not part of the investigation’s purview but they demand a separate, brutally honest, solution-driven inquiry.
PK-8303 was flying from Lahore to Karachi on May 22 when it crashed 1,340m from the runway threshold in its second attempt at landing. The first one had seen it come in with its landing gear retracted, engines furiously scraping the tarmac and sparks flying. The pilots’ decision to do a ‘go around’ turned out to be disastrous because, as per the report, the engines show evidence of having been damaged in the belly landing.
The aircraft, unable to maintain the required height, crashed minutes later in a nearby residential locality. Ninety-seven people on board, and later one person on the ground, lost their lives. Two passengers miraculously survived.
According to the aviation minister, “overconfident pilots” and air traffic control officials were responsible for the crash. The findings thus far do indicate catastrophic mismanagement in the approach protocol.
The crew, to quote the report, “did not follow standard callouts” and when the ATC advised them twice to discontinue the approach on account of excessive height, the “landing approach was not discontinued”.
Moreover, air traffic control officials who witnessed the “scrubbing” of the engines with the runway “did not convey this abnormality to the aircraft”. Some inexplicable actions by the crew will certainly be probed further. For instance, why did the pilots lower the landing gear at 2,200m only to retract it at 530m?
The crew may also have been distracted instead of focusing single-mindedly on their approach to Karachi; according to the minister, they were discussing the pandemic even during the landing phase. Moreover, the co-pilot appears to have made no attempt to correct the captain or counter his decisions in any way. All in all, there was a total failure of crew resource management on the flight deck.
The PK-8303 crash did not happen in a vacuum: it is inextricably linked to the rot within PIA and its regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority. When the aviation minister presented the preliminary investigation report before the National Assembly, he also made a shocking revelation that of 860 active pilots in the country, 262 had appeared in exams through proxies.
So far, he said, PIA has decided to ground 150 of its pilots for possessing ‘dubious’ licences issued by CAA. There must be a root-and-branch overhaul of both organisations and the problems that bedevil them — or else another tragedy like that which befell PK-8303 is inevitable.

Five PIA pilots have not even done matric, SC told

LAHORE: The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) revealed before a Supreme Court bench on Friday that academic credentials of seven pilots of the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) had been found to be bogus and five of them had not even done matric.
Justice Ijazul Ahsan, a member of the three-judge bench, observed that a non-matric person could not even drive a bus but middle-pass people had been flying aeroplanes, putting the lives of passengers in danger.
The bench headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan Mian Saqib Nisar was hearing a matter relating to the verification of degrees of pilots and other staff of the national flag carrier.
The CAA legal adviser told the bench that the authority had been facing difficulties in completing the degrees’ verification process due to non-cooperation of educational boards and universities. The counsel said the PIA was also delaying provision of record of its employees, including pilots and cabin crew. She pointed out that cases of 4,321 employees had been verified while 402 were still pending.
When the bench resumed hearing after a while, the CAA counsel stated that there were only 207 cases left to be verified. She sought more time to do the needful. The CJP accepted the request and adjourned the hearing till Jan 9.
CJP Nisar also modified an earlier order and ruled that the PIA was free to retain or extend services of its contract employees in accordance with the law. He further asked the PIA to submit a list of its all 498 pilots along with their result of licence examination — Airline Transport Passport Licences and Commercial Pilot Licence.

India cautions China over its claim to area of deadly clash

India on Thursday cautioned China against making “exaggerated and untenable claims” to the Galwan Valley area even as both nations tried to end a standoff in the Himalayan region where their armies engaged in a deadly clash.
Twenty Indian troops were killed in Monday’s clash, which was the deadliest conflict between the sides in 45 years. China has not disclosed whether its forces suffered any casualties.
Responding to China’s claim to the valley, India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said both sides agreed to handle the situation responsibly.
“Making exaggerated and untenable claims is contrary to this understanding,” he said in a statement.
Both sides accused each other of instigating the clash between their forces in the valley, part of the disputed Ladakh region along the Himalayan frontier.
China stuck to its position that it was Indian troops who had deliberately provoked and attacked its officers, though it also signaled it wanted talks, noting the importance of the broader bilateral relationship.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian, citing Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a call with his Indian counterpart, said that “mutual respect and support serves our long-term interests” as two emerging nations trying to realise their full development.
“After the incident, China and India communicated and coordinated through military and diplomatic channels,” he said at a daily briefing. “The two sides agreed to deal fairly with the serious events caused by the conflict in the Galwan Valley, and cool down the situation as soon as possible.”
Meanwhile on Thursday, an Indian confederation of small and midsize companies called for a boycott of 500 Chinese goods, including toys and textiles, to express “strong criticism” of China’s alleged aggression in Ladakh.
The call for a boycott followed protests on Wednesday in New Delhi where demonstrators destroyed items they said were made in China while chanting “China get out."
The Himalayan clash has fanned anti-Chinese sentiments already running high due to the coronavirus.
India has reported more than 366,000 Covid-19 cases and 12,200 deaths.
But a broader boycott could backfire for India if China chose to retaliate by banning exports to India of the raw ingredients used by India’s pharmaceutical industry.
Media reports said senior army officers of the two sides met on Wednesday to defuse the situation, but there was no confirmation from either side.
Indian security forces said neither side fired any shots, instead throwing rocks and trading blows. The Indian soldiers, including a colonel, died of severe injuries and exposure in the area’s sub-zero temperatures, the officials said.
The clash escalated a standoff in the disputed region that began in early May, when Indian officials said Chinese soldiers crossed the boundary at three different points, erecting tents and guard posts and ignoring warnings to leave.
That triggered shouting matches, stone-throwing and fistfights, much of it replayed on television news channels and social media.
China’s foreign minister warned New Delhi not to underestimate Beijing’s determination to safeguard what it considers its sovereign territory. His comments came in a phone call on Wednesday with his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
Wang said China demanded that India conduct a thorough investigation and “harshly punish” those responsible.
Jaishankar, in turn, accused China of erecting a structure in the Galwan Valley, which he called a “premeditated and planned action that was directly responsible for the resulting violence and casualties,” according to a statement.
He added that the incident would have “serious repercussions” on India’s relationship with China, but that both sides were committed to further disengaging on the remote plateau of the Himalayan terrain.
While experts said the two nations were unlikely to head to war, they also believe easing tensions quickly will be difficult.
China claims about 90,000 square kilometres of territory in India’s northeast, while India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometres of its territory in the Aksai Chin Plateau in the Himalayas, a contiguous part of the Ladakh region.
India unilaterally declared Ladakh a federal territory while separating it from occupied Kashmir in August 2019.
China was among the handful of countries to strongly condemn the move, raising it at international forums including the UN Security Council.
Thousands of soldiers on both sides have faced off over a month along a remote stretch of the 3,380-kilometre Line of Actual Control (LAC), the border established following a war between India and China in 1962 that resulted in an uneasy truce.

Dystopia beckons

IT is here. More than four months of almost daily acrimony and bungling on the part of officialdom later, Pakistan has become one of the gl...